U.S. stock market history

U.S. stocks are the S&P Composite index as compiled by Robert Shiller. Each month's figure is the average of that month's daily closes, so every return runs from one monthly average to another. A decline measured this way is smaller than one measured from the closing high to the closing low: 1929–1932 is −84.8% here on prices alone, against about −86% from close to close.

With dividends reinvested, a twelfth of the year's dividend is added each month. The latest months' dividends are estimated by carrying the last reported dividend yield forward, until Shiller publishes them.

After inflation, every figure is deflated by the consumer price index Shiller uses: BLS CPI-U from 1913, and Warren and Pearson's price index before that.

The annual rate is (end ÷ start)^(12 ÷ months) − 1. The largest decline is the biggest fall from a high to a later low inside the range. It has recovered in the first month back at or above that high, looking past the end of the range if needed.

A calendar year runs from December's average to December's average. A year the range starts or ends inside, and the current year, are partial: their return covers only the months in the range or so far.

Shaded bands are recessions as dated by the NBER, peak month to trough month. The declines listed in the table are found in the data: for each one, only a search window is set by hand, and the peak, bottom and recovery are the months the data shows for the basis and inflation setting chosen.